Eight of her last nine outings have ended in decisions.īarber is the opposite. You can make as much money on an undercard fight as with a high-profile main event.īarber and Grasso present an interesting contrast in the co-main. Usman has a five-inch reach advantage, good especially from a standup position. Burns has captured his last six, including four by decision, one by TKO and one by submission. He’s won 16 in a row since and has stopped nine of his last 11 opponents. 2 contender, is a live dog.īoth fighters are on a roll. Usman and Burns recorded decision victories over Tyron Woodley in 20. Most of these came against lesser competition, but this shows he likes that attempted method of victory.
If you try to hone in on a submission, Burns wins 44% of the time by that route. But being right on any of the winning methods will generate profit. Trying to be exact, and extracting a big payday by nailing the stoppage round with the right fighter is a good way to expand the ticket. And it doesn’t matter who captures the fight. Which outcome matches the way you feel about this fight? If the angle of how it ends feels stronger than who wins, there’s good money to be made with a correct winning-method forecast. A KO/TKO is worth +135 and the points is -115. According to FanDuel Sportsbook, a week before this event, any submission triumph in the Usman-Burns bout is +550. Main event matchupĮxtend the inclusion principle to Usman versus Burns. This resembles having an angle on a horse and covering it via exacta box. Why not try a specific stoppage round and include Poirier, even though few gave him a chance? The odds board had negative numbers for the fight to end inside of regulation. The styles of the fighters indicated the bout may not last the distance. Props had abounded with McGregor stoppage rounds and they paid handsomely the further the fight went. In this case, the stoppage was a bonus because Poirier triumphed. How was it covered? By selecting the right stoppage round, the gambler took action on both fighters and thus protected the moneyline bet with the rounds prop.Īlthough the gambler’s big money was on Poirier, if McGregor had prevailed in Round 2, the prop would have compensated for much of the lost moneyline bet. And then made a nice cover on the prop, displaying a sharp gambling perspective.Followed by wagering on the moneyline after the price rose substantially.The player first picked a great underdog in Poirier.This gambler made THREE exceptionally smart moves: The betting principle, more than the amount, emerges as a lesson. He bet another $30-40,000 on the distance of the fight, that it would end in Round 2. “We had a guy who put $85,000 on Poirier at +275,” Johnny Avello, the director of race and sportsbook operations at DraftKings, told TheLines. Poirier scored a significant upset, winning in Round 2. Until, at +275, some Poirier bettors pulled a lucrative trigger. Poirier bettors waited and thrived.įew gave Poirier, who had essentially been stopped by one McGregor punch in 2014, a chance. McGregor bettors jumped early, as they should have, because his numbers exceeded -300 the week of the fight. The bettors played it wisely, depending on their perspective. Poirier started in the +240 range with McGregor about -235 across the major books. Recency biasĭo the Usman versus Burns odds, with recent action driving Usman near the tough-to-bet -300 range, look familiar? They do to Dustin Poirier versus Conor McGregor bettors in the wake of Poirier’s shocking upset of McGregor last month. More bouts will be added closer to the event. Jimmie Rivera -150 versus Pedro Munhoz +120.Julian Marquez -177 versus Maki Pitolo +140.
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